No clear signs of peak in global fossil emissions

The headline of the Global Carbon Project’s 2024 report: we’ve not reached peak fossil emissions.

Global emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to rise another 0.8%, for a total 37.4 billion tons (GtCO2), in 2024. Despite growth in fossil emissions, decreases in land-use emissions have plateaued total annual global emissions at 41.6 GtCO2 for the last decade. Atmospheric CO2 is expected to reach 422.5ppm this year.

Among fossil fuels:

• carbon is growing but only slightly
• oil is growing globally but shrinking in USA and China
• natural gas is growing the most, and growing everywhere but the EU

There is some good news:

• Emissions from deforestation are decreasing, while reforestation and afforestation are increasing.
• Emissions are projected to decrease in the US and EU, with their use of coal-power steadily declining.

Overall, uptake of gas and renewable energy is not fast enough to reverse the growth trend, and there’s no sign of a decrease in global total emissions.